Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Bổ Túc Văn Hóa về "Kinh Tế Thị Trường"

Có nhiều em nghe nói bầu bán $700 tỉ cứu nguy thị trường tài chính liền tự tưởng tượng ra và lo bò trắng răng rằng nếu vụ này không thông qua thì đại tư bản ngân hàng của Mỹ sẽ không được cứu! Và sẽ kéo theo sự sụp đổ của cả nền kinh tế. Cũng không trách được những người lơ mơ rất dễ bị nghệ thuật đưa tin của truyền thông chính thức Mỹ hướng dẫn suy nghĩ của họ.

Trên thực tế TRƯỚC KHI có vụ bầu bán $700 tỉ này, các cơ quan của chính phủ Mỹ như FDIC, US Treasury, và cơ quan công tư lộn xộn phức tạp là Federal Reserve đã bơm vào thị trường tài chính, cho mượn hoặc bảo đảm hàng trăm tỉ từ tháng 3 năm nay rồi. Nếu $700 tỉ trên không thông qua thì họ cũng sẽ tiếp tục làm như vậy để giữ vững thị trường. Cơ quan Federal Reserve là một cơ quan được quyền ra quyết định không cần sự chấp thuận của Quốc Hội hay Tổng Thống Mỹ (em này mới là ông chủ thật sự của nước Mỹ nè.)

Dưới đây là hai bài, bài thứ nhất nhan đề "Không Có Kế Hoạch Cứu Nguy, Cái Giá Sẽ Là Thế Nào?" Như tựa bài đã nói trong trường hợp Quốc Hội Mỹ nhất định KHÔNG thông qua (mặc dù khả năng này là số không) thì chuyện gì sẽ xảy ra. và họ đã giải thích rằng ba cơ quan trên vẫn sẽ tung ra $700 tỉ hay nhiều hơn nữa để giữ vững thị trường như thường. Chuyện không có gì mà ầm ĩ cả. Bài thứ hai nói về diễn tiến vụ khủng hoảng tài chính hiện nay bắt đầu từ tháng 3 năm nay bằng sự sụp đổ của ngân hàng đầu tư Bear Stearns. Federal Reserve cho băng JPMorgan Chase vay $29 tỉ để nhà băng đó đồng ý mua lại Bear Stearns.

Sau vụ đầu tiên trên, 3 cơ quan FDIC, US Treasury và Federal Reserve đã tiếp tục bỏ ra hàng chục, hàng trăm tỉ một lần để giải cứu những vụ khác trước khi kế hoạch $700 tỉ được đem ra Quốc Hội diễn tuồng.

Chuyện nhà nước Mỹ và Châu Âu bảo hộ kinh tế của họ có liên quan gì đến mèo? Đúng ra là chả có liên quan gì cả NẾU nhà nước Mỹ và Châu Âu không dạy đời Việt Nam về "kinh tế thị trường" rồi lại quay sang bảo hộ những nhóm tư bản to đầu nhất thế giới! Mọi người Việt Nam cần thấy rõ bộ mặt đểu cáng của bọn con buôn này. Nó biết cứu nước nó, còn người ta cứu nước người ta thì nó lại la làng là chơi không công bằng, không theo "kinh tế thị trường".


Without a Bailout Plan, What Will the Cost Be?

By Justin Fox Monday, Sep. 29, 2008

By voting down the proposed $700 billion financial bailout package — and causing a spectacular stock market rout — a majority of members in the House of Representatives made a clear statement that they didn't want to put taxpayers on the hook for the failures of financial institutions.

But there's a catch: taxpayers are already on the hook for the failures of financial institutions, and it's possible that the bill will actually be larger without bailout legislation than with it. That's because the regulators who mind the financial industry — the Federal Reserve, Treasury and FDIC — will keep doing what they've been doing: stepping in to prevent the chaotic failure of banks and other large financial institutions. This means continuing to put hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars at risk, but in a way that adheres to no clear plan of action and doesn't require members of Congress to explicitly approve their actions.

On Monday afternoon, Wall Street basically stopped trading to watch TV — mainly CNBC — to see how the House of Representatives would vote on the $700 billion bailout package. When it first started looking like the bill would fail, the Dow plummeted 389 points, or 3.6%, in just seven minutes. If it had continued at that pace for much longer, this would have been perhaps the most harrowing day in stock market history. It didn't, but things were still really, really bad. The Dow ended the day down 778 points, or 7%, and the S&P 500 — a better measure of the overall market — was down 107 points, or 8.8%, its worst performance since the 1987 market crash. And markets for bonds and short-term loans were, for the most part, nonexistent.

So what happens now? On Capitol Hill, House leaders said they'll try again soon. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson practically begged for a revised deal in his brief appearance after the market carnage. "Our tool kit is substantial but insufficient," he said. The market's traumatized reaction today may change some minds and some votes.

In asking Congress 11 days ago for the authority to spend up to $700 billion to buy troubled assets, Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke were hoping to share some of the responsibility and the blame — and get the freedom to boost companies that weren't already on the brink of failure. Instead, they're back to being crisis managers for the moment — and maybe for the duration of the crisis.

That's not all bad, especially now that most of the endangered financial institutions are commercial banks. The Federal Government has clearly defined that authorities take them over, merge them out of existence or shut them down — whereas it had to make things up as it went along with investment banks Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and insurer AIG. That's why the demise of giant banks Washington Mutual and Wachovia, arranged over the past week by the FDIC, occurred in a far more orderly fashion than the non-bank meltdowns.

But orderly isn't the same as cheap. To get Citigroup to absorb Wachovia, the FDIC agreed to share the risk on a $312 billion portfolio of loans (Citi has to eat the first $42 billion in potential losses; anything above that hits the FDIC fund).

Also, the fact that every big FDIC deal so far in this crisis has been different — IndyMac was allowed to fail, with only insured deposits safe; WaMu was seized, but all depositors were protected; and Wachovia was sold in a deal that protected both depositors and owners of the company's bonds but left shareholders with very little — has left investors guessing about the fate of the rest of the banking world. Hardest hit in today's market sell-off were regional banks like Sovereign Bancorp and National City, perhaps because they seem too small to get special FDIC treatment.

Federal authorities are going to keep doing whatever they can to keep the financial system from collapsing. Taxpayers will bear the risks and the costs of that, whether Congress votes to put them there or not. And it's possible — although nobody can know for sure — that this ad hoc approach will end up costing more than an up-front $700 billion bailout.


A chronology of the US financial crisis

30 Sep, 2008, 0023 hrs IST, AGENCIES

WASHINGTON: Principle dates in the meltdown of the global financial industry and US government efforts to implement an emergency rescue plan for the sector:

March 16:

- Struggling Wall Street investment bank Bear Stearns is sold at the fire-sale price of 236 million dollars to JP Morgan Chase, in a deal engineered by the Federal Reserve.

September 7:

- The US Treasury takes over shareholder-owned mortgage finance giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and guarantees 100 billion dollars of debt for each institution.

September 15:

- Venerable Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers files for
bankruptcy protection after the US government refuses to bail it out.

- Rival Merrill Lynch hastily arranges to be swallowed up by Bank of America for 50 billion dollars.

- Credit rating agencies downgrade the debt of American International Group (AIG), the largest US
insurance company, and its share price plunges 60.8 percent, deepening earlier losses.

- The Federal Reserve pumps 70 billion dollars into the markets.

- The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunges 504 points, or 4.42 percent, its biggest one-day loss since September 2001. London's FTSE 100 index dropped 3.92 percent, the CAC 40 in Paris fell 3.78 percent and Frankfurt's DAX sheds 2.74 percent.

September 16:

- The US government rescues AIG with an 85-billion-dollar loan, giving the US government a 79.9 percent stake in the company. The Fed injects another 50 billion dollars into the markets.
September 17:

- Stocks plunge again amid the economic uncertainty: the Dow slides 449 points or 4.06 percent. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) bans some short selling of financial

September 18:

- The Fed and global central banks pump 300 billion dollars into credit markets. Stocks rally on news of a broader US government bailout; the Dow jumps 3.86 percent.

- US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke begin talks on a huge plan to buy toxic
mortgage-related assets from troubled financial institutions. Reports of the discussions send the Dow Jones average up 410 points.

September 19:

- US government asks Congress for the ability to buy 700 billion dollars in bad mortgage-related debts, one of the biggest financial rescue plans in history. The Fed pumps another 20 billion dollars into the credit markets. Stocks soar, with the Dow up 3.35 percent and Paris and London indexes surging 9.27 percent and 8.84 percent, respectively.

September 21:

- The Federal Reserve announces that Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the last big independent
investment houses on Wall Street, were turning themselves into bank holding companies subject to greater regulation.

September 24:

- Republican Senator John McCain announces that he was suspending his presidential campaign to join tough negotiations in Congress over the government's bailout plan. His Democratic rival, Senator Barack Obama, declines to follow suit.

- President George W. Bush gives a nationally televised speech warning that the "entire economy is in danger" if Congress does not approve the bailout. He invites McCain and Obama to a White House summit on the crisis.

September 25:

- Lawmakers announce "fundamental agreement on a set of principles" for a rescue plan, but talks then deadlock due to opposition from conservative Republicans. The White House meeting ends inconclusively.

September 26:

- Washington Mutual (WAMU) collapses in the biggest US bank failure to date. JPMorgan Chase purchases parts of WAMU for 1.9 billion dollars.

September 28:

- Lawmakers hail breakthrough in talks, releasing draft legislation for a phased bailout beginning with purchases of 250 billion dollars in toxic debt with the possibility of expanding to 700 billion dollars. Deal would impose curbs on executive pay and introduce strict oversight over the plan.

September 29:

- The House of Representatives rejects the bailout plan by a vote of 228 to 205, with Republicans leading opposition to the deal.

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